Fires and Numbers – Part 1 – Are Fire Trends Going Up or Going Down?

by Jon Nisja

The National Fire Sprinkler Association (NFSA) blogs are read by a wide range of interests – including contractors, installers, engineers, AHJs, researchers, component manufacturers, and building owners. Across all of those diverse interests and occupations, one thing is common: the numbers. Although many claim to hate math, it is something that most of us use on a daily basis.

Since many people reading this are in the fire safety business, do you know some basic U.S. fire data, such as:

• How many fires occur in the U.S. every year?
• What types of fires are occurring in the U.S.?
• Have structure fires gotten worse over the years??

In this blog, we will explore some of these questions along with a few others.

How Many Structure Fires Occur in the U.S. Every Year?

This is a “good news – bad news” issue. Overall fires from 1980 to the present have dropped; that’s the good news. There was an average of 2.46 million fires each year in the 1980s. That number dropped to an average of 1.34 million fires in the last ten years. That represents a 45 percent reduction in fires.

The bad news is that, despite an overall reduction in the number of fires over these five decades, recent history is showing an upward trend. Chart 2 shows the number of fires in the past ten years.

What Types of Fires Are Occurring in the U.S.?

The National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) groups fires into one of three major categories: structure fires, vehicle fires, and outdoor fires. The following table shows a breakdown by the type of fire.

As seen in the table, structure fires are the type that kill and injure the most people (77 and 88 percent, respectively) and do the most damage (83 percent of the loss).

Have Structure Fires Gotten Worse Over the Years?

While the number of fires has decreased over the past five decades, they appear to have plateaued and are increasing in recent years. Of the three main types of fire (structure, vehicle and outdoor), structure fires kill and injure the most people and result in the greatest dollar loss.

Fires and Numbers – Part 2 – Structure Fire Trends in the U.S.

Earlier, we discussed some basic fire trends such as how many fires happen each year and what types of fires occur most often, injured the most people, and did the most damage.

In this section, we are going to zero in on structure fire trends, looking at things such as:

• How many structure fires occur every year in the U.S.?
• What are the different types of structure fires?
• How many structure fires does an average community experience each year?

The focus will be on structure fires related to:

• Total number of casualties,
• Number of people injured,
• Property loss estimates in dollar loss.

 

How Many Structure Fires Occur Each Year in the U.S.?

According to the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), the U.S. averages about 500,000 structure fires each year over the past ten years. This is a fairly significant 42 percent drop from the annual average of about 860,000 building fires in the 1980s.

Just as the number of all fires has been increasing in the last ten years, the number of structure fires is also going up. Graph 4 shows the structure fire trends in the past ten years.

What Are the Different Types of Structure Fires

The National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) groups structure fires into one of two subcategories: Residential structure fires and Nonresidential (or otherwise commonly known as “commercial”) structure fires. The following table shows a breakdown by the type of structure fire in 2022.

As seen in the above table, the vast majority of fires, deaths, injuries, and property loss occurs in residential structure fires.

Structure Fire Trends per Capita

Although numbers themselves can tell a story they don’t always tell the whole story. It is often preferable to show fire loss on a per capita basis (how many fires for a given population size). This is particularly helpful when making comparisons. Graph 5 shows the structure fire rate from 1980 to 2022.

Once a structure fire rate has been determined, it is easy to convert that into a population to predict how many structure fires could be expected in a given size community. From 2018-2022 (five years) the average structure fire rate for the U.S. was 15 structure fires for each 10,000 population. The following table shows the number of structure fires that can be anticipated for various-sized communities.

Communities experiencing a significantly higher number of structure fires is an indication that they are at greater risk. It may be wise to undertake a prevention strategy in an effort to reduce the number of fires. Communities experiencing a much lower number of building fires indicates that they tend to be safer and may be an indication that they are controlling their risk.

Are Structure Fires Increasing in the U.S.?

The number of structure fires has decreased over the past five decades; however, they appear to have plateaued and are increasing in recent years. Structure fires kill and injure the most people and result in the greatest dollar loss. Nationally, the fire rate of 15 structure fires per 10,000 people can be used to predict or compare the number of fires in a given community. A great deal of interest is paid to structure fires as they result in more fire deaths, fire injuries, and fire loss but they are also the most preventable of the fire types.

Fires and Numbers – Part 3 – Fatal Fire Trends

As reported earlier, most fire deaths in the U.S. occur in structure fires.

In this section, we are going to look at fire deaths, answering questions such as:

• How many fire deaths occur each year in the U.S.?
• Are fire deaths increasing or decreasing?
• What type of structure fire kills the most people?
• How many fire deaths occur based on population?

How Many Fire Deaths Occur Each Year in the U.S.?

According to the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), the U.S. averages about 3,500 fire deaths each year for the past ten years (2013-2022). In the 1980s, the U.S. averaged about 6,000 fire deaths per year. Fire deaths have decreased about 42 percent from the 1980s until 2022. Since 2013, however, fire deaths in the U.S. have been increasing.

The majority of fire deaths occur in structure fires (average of 2,870 deaths in structure fires each year for the past ten years – or 82 percent). This is a fairly significant 44 percent drop from the annual average of about 5,130 fire deaths in the 1980s. While structure fires represent 35 percent of the fires, they result in 77 percent of the fire deaths. The following table shows the number of fires and fire deaths for the three types of fires.

 

Just as the number of fires and structure fires has been increasing in the last ten years, the number of structural fire deaths is also going up. Graph 8 shows the number of structural fire deaths in the past ten years.

Research projects and studies have shown that fires in modern structures are developing faster and that occupants may not have sufficient time to escape. These studies have identified newer construction materials and the increased use of synthetic materials in furnishings and furniture as major factors that have made fires spread faster and produce more toxic combustion products. These factors may explain the recent increase in structure fire deaths and injuries. This rapid fire growth points to the need for early warning smoke alarms or detection to alert occupants and fire sprinkler systems to slow the fire’s growth.

What Type of Structure Fire Kills the Most People?

The National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) groups fires into one of three main categories: structure fires, vehicle fires, and outdoor fires. It then further divides these into several subcategories. The following table shows a breakdown of fire deaths by the type of fire in 2022.

As seen in the above table, the highest risk of dying is in a one- and two-family home fire. Out of every 125 one- and two-family home fires in the U.S., someone dies. It is 7 times more dangerous than the risk of dying in a commercial building fire and 30 percent higher than dying in an apartment or multi-family structure fire.

Fatal Fire Trends by Population

Although numbers themselves can tell a story they don’t always tell the whole story. It is often preferable to show data on a per capita basis (how many fire deaths for a given population size). This is particularly helpful when making comparisons. Graph 9 shows the structure fire death rate from 1980 to 2022.

For the past ten years the fire death rate in the U.S. has averaged about 9 fire deaths per million people. The following table shows the number of fire deaths per year for communities of a given size based on this ratio.

Communities experiencing a significantly higher number of structure fire deaths is a clear indication that they are at greater risk. It may be wise to undertake a prevention strategy, in an effort to reduce the number of fire deaths. Communities experiencing a much lower number of structure fire deaths indicates that they tend to be safer and may be an indication that they are controlling their risk.

Summary

Over three-quarters of all fire deaths occur in structure fires. A great deal of interest is paid to structure fire deaths as they are the most preventable of the fire types. Due to numerous prevention efforts undertaken in the past five decades (smoke alarms, education, fire sprinklers), the number of structure fire deaths has decreased. While fire deaths have decreased over time, they appear to have plateaued and are increasing in recent years. Nationally, the rate of about 9 structure fire deaths per million people can be used to predict or compare the number of fires in any given community.

Fires and Numbers – Part 4 – Apartment Fire Trends

We have learned that most fire deaths in the U.S. occur in structure fires. Residential fires are the most common type of structure fires. One- and two-family home fires are the most common type of structure fire, but apartments and multi-family building fires are the next most common.

In this section, we are going to look at fires in apartment buildings, answering questions such as:

• How many apartment building fires occur each year?
• Are apartment building fires increasing or decreasing?
• Are fire deaths in apartment building fires increasing or decreasing?

How Many Apartment Building Fires Occur Each Year?

According to the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), the U.S. averages about 88,600 apartment building fires each year for the past ten years (2013-2022). In the 1980s, the U.S. averaged about 110,600 apartment building fires per year. This represents a decrease in the number of apartment building fires of about 20 percent from the 1980s until 2022.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that there are 33,675,570 apartment or multi-family housing units in the U.S. The average housing unit contains 2.3 people, meaning that over 77 million people live in apartments or multi-family buildings having three or more units under one roof. Almost one-quarter of the U.S. population lives in these types of buildings.

Are Apartment Fire Deaths and Injuries Increasing or Decreasing?

Apartment building fires were responsible for 12 percent of the fire deaths and 21 percent of the fire injuries in 2022 in the U.S. Deaths from apartment fires has been declining from an average of 840 per year in the 1980s to an average of about 375 per year (2013-2022). Injuries from apartment fires, however, continued to climb into the 1990s before gradually declining. The following is a breakdown of apartment fire trends, showing deaths and injuries by decade:

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the model building, fire, and life safety codes started requiring new apartment buildings to be protected with fire sprinkler systems. Assuming that it took a few years for these new requirements to be adopted and enforced, this roughly corresponds to when deaths and injuries in apartment fires both started to trend downward as can be seen in the following graph.

Apartments and Fire Sprinklers

During the most recent five-year period of time 2018-2022, the occupancy that experienced the most successful sprinkler activations and fire control was apartment buildings. Apartment and multi-family buildings accounted for 41 percent of all of the successful sprinkler activations. This is even more remarkable as sprinkler protection has only been required in these buildings for the past 30-35 years. The following chart shows the successful sprinkler activation by the type of occupancy.

Summary: The Impact of Fire Sprinklers on Structure Fire Trends

It is estimated that about 25 percent of the U.S. population resides in apartment or multi-family buildings. Overall, apartment fire deaths and injuries have declined during the past five decades, but they have continued to be the second-leading occupancy for fire deaths and injuries (behind one- and two-family dwelling fires). Since the late 1980s or early 1990s, most new apartment buildings have installed residential fire sprinkler protection. While the number of apartment fires has remained fairly steady over the past thirty years, fire deaths and injuries have declined. Fire sprinkler systems have played a large role in the reduction of deaths and injuries in these types of buildings.

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