Jon Nisja, Data and Fire Protection Specialist

Some people argue that you cannot count something that did not happen. For a few decades, the number of fire deaths and the fire death rate (number of people who died in fires per million population) have dropped. In this blog we will explore fire deaths from 1980 until 2024, look at the data, identify reasons for the decrease, and look at recent fire death trends.

The data in this blog comes from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA); they have been tracking fire deaths since the late 1970s (and perhaps beyond). We will start by using NFPA fire death numbers for three years in the late-1970s to establish a baseline. In 1977, 1978, and 1979, there were 7,359, 7,710, and 7,575 fire deaths, respectively. This is an average of 7,548 fire deaths a year.

Based on U.S. Census Bureau data, the population of the country was 220.2 million, 222.6 million, and 225.0 million for the three years resulting in an average population of about 222.6 million per year. Using the population and fire death counts, we can establish a fire death rate of 33.9 (number of fire deaths per million people).

Beginning in 1980, fire deaths began to drop and that trend continued until about 2013. The following table shows the population, number of fire deaths, and fire death rates for the various decades.

Since the fire death rate from the late-1970s is known, we can begin to estimate how many more people would have died from fire had that fire death rate continued.

This is an example of counting or predicting something that didn’t happen. The cumulative total of 242,220 represents the number of people who would have died in fires had the fire death rate of the late-1970s continued. A population of about 242,220 is found in cities such as Glendale, Arizona; Lubbock, Texas; Madison, Wisconsin; Reno, Nevada; and Durham, North Carolina. That is a lot of people.

There have been 16,436 days from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2024. If we assume 242,220 lives spared divided by 16,436 days, that means just under 15 people per day did not perish from fire during this period of time had the fire death rate continued at 33.9 per million.

Unfortunately, for the last dozen or so years, fire deaths in the U.S. have been increasing as can be seen in the following graph.

Why Did Fire Deaths Decrease Over 40 Years?

There are myriads of opinions as to why fire deaths dropped from 1980 to 2012. Among the leading explanation was the development and mass production of relatively low-cost smoke alarms in the late-1970s and early-1980s. Smoke alarms likely account for a large proportion of the fire death decrease. Other factors include:

• Enhanced firefighter training.
• Advancements in firefighting equipment.
• Adoption and enforcement of building and fire codes (code enforcement and fire prevention activities by state and local code officials became commonplace in the 1970s).
• Improved fire and life safety education activities.
• Increase in the number of buildings protected with fire sprinklers.

Why Are Recent Fire Death Numbers Increasing?

Again, there are various opinions on why fire deaths are trending upwards in recent years after decades of decline. Among the reasons often mentioned are:

• Aging population – the number of elderly is increasing, and this is a demographic that is at a much higher risk of dying in a fire.
• Efficacy of smoke alarms – some argue that smoke alarm efficacy has plateaued and that the populations at highest risk for dying in fire often either do not have smoke alarms or have not maintained them.
• Increased use of synthetic and plastic materials – more furniture, fabrics, decorative materials, and construction materials are using synthetic materials and plastics. When ignited, these materials burn faster and hotter than conventional wood or paper products not allowing sufficient time for escape. These materials also produce incredible amounts of toxic fire gases (like Carbon Monoxide, Nitrous Oxide, Hydrogen Cyanide, and Hydrogen Chloride).
• Code enforcement under attack – in recent years, special interest groups have placed enormous pressure to reduce or repeal fire protection features in the building and fire codes.
• Funding for fire departments – budgets have been cut or frozen in recent years and fire departments have responded by trimming resources for fire prevention, community risk reduction, and firefighter training.

Summary

Fire deaths dropped significantly for four decades in the U.S. Much of that decrease was attributable to smoke alarms, better code enforcement, improved firefighter training and equipment, installation of fire sprinkler systems, and stronger fire and life safety education programs. During that time, it is estimated that an additional 242,000 people would have died in fires had the fire death rate of the late-1970s continued. The bottom line is that fire prevention and protection measures saved lives.

Unfortunately, that four-decade downward trend has reversed in recent years and is increasing. Have we witnessed the end of great advances in reducing fire deaths? Will fire death numbers continue to climb? What could reverse the current upward trend?

Jon Nisja is a Data and Fire Protection Specialist with the National Fire Sprinkler Association (NFSA). Prior to working for NFSA, Jon served as a fire marshal since 1985 in two communities and as a state fire safety supervisor for the Minnesota State Fire Marshal Division. From 2005-2022, he supervised the State Fire Marshal’s fire protection, training, and data teams. He is the past president of both the Fire Marshals Association of Minnesota and the International Fire Marshals Association. Jon can be contacted at nisja@nfsa.org.