Terin Hopkins

NFSA Manager of Public Fire Protection

Across Maryland, high-rise residential buildings are home to thousands of residents, many of whom rely on these structures for stable and affordable housing. While modern building codes have significantly improved fire safety in newer construction, a large portion of the state’s high-rise housing stock was built decades before automatic fire sprinklers became standard. Data from NFSA High-Rise Building Fires Report: Maryland High-Rise Fire Data 2001-2022 provides a clear picture of where the greatest risks exist and what conditions are most likely to lead to the next tragic fire.

While no analysis can responsibly predict the exact building where a fatal fire will occur, the available data reveals patterns that make it possible to identify the most likely circumstances and locations where such an event could happen next. These insights are important not only for fire officials but also for property owners, policymakers, and residents who share responsibility for improving building safety.

High-Rise Fires Are Not Rare Events

During the 22-year period analyzed, Maryland fire departments reported 248 active fires that originated on the seventh floor or higher in high-rise buildings, averaging roughly 11 upper-floor high-rise fires each year. In total, fire departments responded to approximately 1,300 fires in buildings seven stories or taller, resulting in seven deaths and 74 injuries.

Although the number of fatal incidents may appear small, each high-rise fire represents a complex and resource-intensive emergency. Fires in these buildings can quickly displace hundreds of residents, strain emergency services, and cause long-term housing instability. Even relatively small fires can lead to evacuations, water damage, or extended building closures.

It is also important to understand that the data used in this analysis is extremely conservative. The National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) data set used for this review only tracks fires that originated above the seventh floor.

This limitation is significant because fires that begin on lower floors often produce the most catastrophic outcomes. As hot gases and toxic smoke rise through stairwells, elevator shafts, and hallways, they can rapidly impact residents on multiple floors above the fire. One tragic example is the Bronx high-rise fire in 2022, where 17 people lost their lives, including eight children, in a fire that began in a second-floor apartment, allowing smoke to spread throughout the building, resulting in numerous fatalities. Events like this demonstrate how lower-floor fires can threaten the entire building, even when the fire itself remains confined to one apartment.

For this reason, the Maryland data should be viewed as a conservative baseline estimate of risk, not a complete accounting of high-rise fire hazards.

Residential High-Rises Present the Greatest Risk

The data shows that residential occupancies dominate high-rise fire incidents. Of the 248 fires analyzed, 193 occurred in apartment or condominium buildings, far exceeding other occupancies such as hotels, offices, or healthcare facilities.

This trend is not surprising. Residential buildings operate around the clock, contain cooking equipment and electrical appliances, and house residents with varying levels of fire awareness and mobility. When fires occur in these environments, they can spread rapidly through toxic smoke migration and threaten occupants on multiple floors.

Because of this concentration, the next fatal high-rise fire in Maryland is statistically most likely to occur in a residential apartment building rather than a commercial or institutional structure.

Geographic Clusters of Risk

The distribution of fires across Maryland communities shows a strong geographic concentration. Several jurisdictions account for a large share of high-rise fire responses.

The communities with the highest number of incidents include:

• Baltimore – 70 fires
• Silver Spring – 59 fires
• Rockville – 16 fires
• Chevy Chase – 14 fires
• Hagerstown – 12 fires
• Bethesda – 11 fires

Two clear risk clusters emerge from this data. The first is Baltimore, which contains a significant number of older residential high-rise buildings. The second is the Montgomery County high-rise corridor, including Silver Spring, Bethesda, Rockville, and Chevy Chase. Together, these areas account for a substantial portion of Maryland’s high-rise fire incidents.

This concentration does not mean other jurisdictions are immune, but it does highlight where aging high-rise housing stock and population density intersect to create elevated risk.

The Critical Role of Fire Sprinklers

Perhaps the most important finding from the data involves the presence or absence of automatic fire sprinkler systems.

Among the fires studied:

• 53% occurred in buildings without sprinklers
• 40% occurred in buildings with sprinkler protection

The difference in outcomes between these two groups is significant. Where sprinklers were present and operated, injuries occurred at a rate of one injury for every 20 fires. In buildings without sprinkler protection, injuries occurred at a rate of one injury for every eight fires.

In other words, operating sprinkler systems reduced the risk of injury by approximately 60 percent. They also reduced average property loss by 55 percent, limiting the damage and disruption that often follow high-rise fires.

These findings reinforce what decades of fire research have shown: sprinklers control fires quickly, protect occupants, and dramatically reduce the scale of emergencies.

What the Data Suggests About the Next Fatal Fire

Based on these patterns, the next fatal high-rise fire in Maryland is most likely to involve several key factors:

• A residential apartment high-rise
• An older building without sprinkler protection
• A jurisdiction with a large concentration of high-rise housing
• A fire originating on a lower residential floor

This is not speculation; it is a projection based on historical fire data and established risk factors.

A Preventable Outcome

The purpose of analyzing fire data is not to predict tragedy but to prevent it. High-rise fires are among the most challenging incidents fire departments face. They require significant resources, create dangerous conditions for residents and firefighters, and can destabilize entire communities.

The Maryland data clearly shows that sprinkler protection dramatically reduces both injuries and property loss. As cities and states consider policies for older residential buildings, these findings provide an important reminder: the most effective way to prevent the next fatal high-rise fire is to address the buildings where the risk is already known to exist.

The question is not whether another high-rise fire will occur. The data shows they happen every year. The real question is whether the next one will occur in a building equipped to stop it or one still waiting for modern fire protection.

More about the Author:

Terin Hopkins has 40 years of experience in public safety, fire protection, and life safety policy. He currently serves as the Manager of Public Fire Protection for the National Fire Sprinkler Association (NFSA), where he leads technical support and advocacy efforts nationwide, working closely with fire departments, code and standard, and policymakers to improve fire protection infrastructure and compliance. He represents NFSA on many NFPA and UL technical committees, including NFPA 14 Standard for the Installation of Standpipe and Hose Systems.

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