National Fire Sprinkler Association: San Francisco Retrofit Cost Projections Are Wildly Inflated and Out of Step with Real-World Data

By Terin Hopkins, NFSA Manager of Public Fire Protection

In response to recent news commentary suggesting that San Francisco’s high-rise fire-sprinkler retrofit mandate could cost individual condo owners more than $300,000 per unit, the National Fire Sprinkler Association (NFSA) is urging decision-makers to rely on actual retrofit experience, real contractor bids, NFSA national data, and code-based requirements rather than inflated doomsday projections.

IFC 2021: National Code Requirements Already Expect Existing High-Rises to Retrofit Sprinklers

The 2021 International Fire Code (IFC), the model fire code adopted by jurisdictions across the United States, already requires a pathway for existing high-rise buildings to be brought into compliance with modern fire-protection standards, including fire sprinklers.

Key IFC 2021 provisions for existing high-rise buildings include:

  • Fire Sprinkler Systems:
    Existing high-rise buildings are required to be retrofitted with automatic sprinkler systems when such systems are already required for new construction under the IBC, and where local ordinances have adopted IFC retroactivity. Many jurisdictions, including major metropolitan cities, have implemented this requirement through mandated retrofit ordinances.
  • High-Rise Buildings:
    High-rise buildings must comply with a defined package of retroactive safety features, which include:
    • Automatic fire sprinkler systems
    • Emergency responder communication systems
    • Fire alarm and detection upgrades
  • IFC Chapter 11 (Existing Buildings) clearly establishes the national expectation:
    When high-rise fire risks exceed acceptable thresholds, or when local governments adopt the IFC retroactive package, sprinkler retrofits are triggered as the core life-safety upgrade.

In short: Decades of real-world fire data have driven the national model codes to consistently strengthen retrofit requirements for existing high-rise buildings. The direction is unmistakable; existing high-rises must be retrofitted with automatic fire sprinklers to meet modern, nationally recognized life-safety standard minimums for existing buildings.

NFSA: Real Retrofit Costs Are a Fraction of the Estimates Being Used in San Francisco

NFSA’s contractor bid package provides one of the clearest real-world examples of what a high-rise sprinkler retrofit costs, and it bears no resemblance to the exaggerated figures being circulated in San Francisco. The NFSA bid example evaluates a 12-story residential high-rise constructed with a mix of exposed parking garages, amenities, and finished residential units. For this building, the bid covering design, permitting, materials, installation, and system tie-ins—came in at:

  • $725,000 total, or $5.14 per square foot, for a full retrofit from the basement level through Level 12.

This includes residential CPVC piping installed below ceilings, garage dry systems, balcony sprinklers, elevator shaft protection, floor-control valve assemblies, concrete coring, firestopping, hanging systems and all sprinkler types needed to bring the building to NFPA 13 standards.

This bid represents a complete, occupied-building retrofit, not a partial upgrade or shell-space installation.

NFSA’s broader national and regional data show similar patterns:

  • In comparable mid-rise and high-rise residential buildings across the Pacific Northwest and West Coast where labor, permitting, and material costs are similar or higher than the national average, full in-unit retrofit pricing typically ranges from $5 to $10 per square foot depending on construction type, asbestos conditions, and the need for soffit concealment.
  • Modeling using NFSA retrofit methodology for a major occupied high-rise in Philadelphia produced an average of approximately $12,700 per unit, demonstrating that even in large, fully occupied residential towers, per-unit costs remain in the tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands.

The NFSA bid package makes the reality unmistakable:
Real contractor pricing for an actual 12-story building, reflective of modern labor rates, materials, and code requirements, reaffirms that sprinkler retrofits are financially achievable and far below the inflated $300,000-per-unit projections circulating in San Francisco.

“These are verified contractor prices for an occupied high-rise, not speculative worst-case projections,” said NFSA President Shane Ray. “The 2021 International Fire Code already anticipates these retrofits. The cost arguments being made in San Francisco are simply not aligned with decades of NFSA data or real market pricing.”

Maryland & Chicago: National Examples That Show Retrofit Success

  • Chicago (1999–present):
    After documenting that 91% of high-rise fire deaths occurred in unsprinklered buildings, the city phased in retrofits. The result: thousands of units retrofitted, fire deaths reduced, and no cost catastrophes even approaching the numbers cited in San Francisco.
  • Maryland HB823 Workgroup (2025):
    After reviewing 20+ years of high-rise fire data, workgroup concluded that automatic fire sprinklers are the most affordable life-safety enhancement, a fact underscored by the Maryland Workgroup’s determination that no other intervention, alarms, compartmentation, or operational measures, delivers the same life-saving impact per dollar as retrofitting existing high-rises with automatic sprinklers.

Asbestos Concerns Are Manageable and Overstated

National guidance on asbestos show:

  • Asbestos does not require full-building abatement.
  • Targeted, “spot” abatement during sprinkler installation typically costs $1–$4 per ft², not $15–$20 per ft².
  • Non-destructive routing (surface-mounted pipe with soffits) often avoids disturbing asbestos entirely.
  • Case studies such as the Saligman House retrofit demonstrate successful occupied retrofits with no long-term displacement.

Ignoring Retrofit Comes with the Highest Cost

The Marco Polo 578-unit high-rise in Honolulu remains a defining case of why delaying sprinkler retrofits is so costly. Before the fire, the condo association had received a proposal to install sprinklers for about $2 million but chose not to proceed. After the devastating 2017 fire, which caused multiple deaths, displaced hundreds of residents, and produced over $100 million in damage alone, the building was ultimately required to retrofit sprinklers anyway, this time at a final cost of roughly $5 million.

 

The lesson mirrors the Maryland High-Rise Workgroup’s findings: the cost of inaction is always higher than the cost of retrofit. NFSA national data makes the reason clear; automatic fire sprinklers reduce fire deaths by more than 90% and prevent the large-loss fires that drive nearly all catastrophic high-rise outcomes.

San Francisco Needs Real Numbers, Not Scare Tactics

NFSA recommends that San Francisco:

  1. Obtain competitive contractor bids using the NFSA high-rise retrofit package.
  2. Align with IFC 2021 by adopting a phased retrofit schedule consistent with national best practices.
  3. Leverage federal incentives, including Section 179/bonus depreciation for mixed-use applications.
  4. Use proven asbestos mitigation strategies that avoid unnecessary cost burdens.
  5. Launch a citywide high-rise risk assessment based on factual methodologies.

When cities follow IFC 2021 and rely on real retrofit data, the numbers stabilize and residents gain life-safety systems that prevent tragedies.

About the National Fire Sprinkler Association (NFSA)

Founded in 1905, the National Fire Sprinkler Association advocates for the widespread use of fire sprinklers as the most effective life-safety technology available. NFSA supports fire-protection professionals, policymakers, contractors, and community leaders nationwide with technical assistance, retrofit guidance, code expertise, and research-driven advocacy.